In a statement posted on his social media platform, US President Trump announced that from now on, any country conducting business with Iran will have all its trade activities with the US subject to a 25% tariff increase, and he described this decision as "final and irreversible". Although the White House has not released any official documents, the specific implementation details, coverage scope and verification mechanism are all unclear. However, this unprecedented threat has been enough to send a chill through participants in the global supply chain. 

The core logic of this policy is an extreme form of "bundled" pressure. Due to the long-term comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, there is almost no direct commercial interaction between the two sides, making traditional tariff measures unable to directly target Iran. Therefore, the US took an unconventional approach, attempting to achieve the goal of economically isolating Iran by punishing Iran's trading partners. This essentially tied the US' diplomatic and security objectives to the commercial choices of all trading partners, enveloping normal international trade activities in unpredictable political risks. 

The potential impact could be extremely wide-ranging. According to Iranian customs data, China is its largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 30% of its total trade volume; Germany is a major partner in Europe; the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India, Iraq, and other countries also have close commercial ties with Iran. 

Theoretically, all trade flows with these economies to the US could potentially be exposed to risks. However, how to define "having commercial dealings with Iran", whether to impose a blanket tax or selectively implement it, all present significant uncertainties, and it is precisely this unknown that the market fears the most. 

The timing of this tariff threat came at a time when the US-Iran relationship was dangerously oscillating between the brink of war and the negotiating table. On one hand, Trump disclosed that he had received Iran's negotiation proposal; on the other hand, his White House staff clearly stated that they did not rule out taking military action. Against this backdrop, the tariff threat was more like a last-ditch negotiating bargaining chip, aimed at forcing Iran to make concessions and coercing other countries to take sides. This operation of completely weaponizing trade tools and having ambiguous rules seriously eroded the stable foundation on which global commerce relies. 

For the shipping and logistics industry, the impact has already been evident. Any cargo flow involving major trading partners of the United States and Iran may suddenly face an additional cost cliff of 25%. This forces freight forwarders and importers to re-evaluate the risks of multiple key shipping routes. What's more severe is that the future compliance burden will be unprecedentedly heavy. Companies may need to prove that their vast and complex supply chains have no connection with Iran, which is practically impossible in practice and will bring huge due diligence pressure to the logistics环节. 

In the short term, there may be a wave of "rush shipping" for high-risk routes, leading to tight shipping capacity. In the medium to long term, it may accelerate the relocation of orders and production capacity by importers from related countries, triggering another passive reorganization of the supply chain. Remind all shippers and freight forwarders to confirm the latest tariffs before shipment and make a transportation plan. 

Source: Shipping Intelligence News (ID: hyzhiwen)